The misadventure of the 'coalition of the willing' into Iraq poses probably the greatest danger to everybody in ways both determined and undetermined. The most obvious global implications are currently the hike in oil prices (which in many respects is a good thing), a general sense of insecurity within the region and a heightened sense of alertness of many western security services.
Among the unseen complications however we have the issue of reduced focus on actually tackling the very issues that allow terrorism to breed - to quote a famous global statesman and immediate past American Chief Executive - its the economy, stupid! The whole global economy is lob-sided and will continue to be unless there's a greater redistribution of wealth within nations and across economic blocs.
One salient fact about the Middle-East which rarely makes the headlines is the yearning of the peoples there to taste real freedom! The very freedoms we take for granted in the West. The freedom to choose your leaders (not that we in the West have mustered the art yet - US Elections 2000 case in point), the freedom to talk and dissent without being brutally repressed, and a plethora of others.
So how does all of this tie in to the Civil War in Iraq? Yes I used the dreaded phrase. Come on folks, we all know that what's going on in Iraq is a Civil War all but in name. If Iraq implodes expect the domino effect in the entire region. What's that going to mean for everybody in the world? Forget $100 a barrel for you delicious crude, forget the sweet ideal of democracies being enhanced in that region and around the world. The short to long-term effects are that we in the West are also going to retrogress in terms of our civilisations. Political paranoia will become rampant as a direct result of jittery government and security agencies. We've already witnessed a foretaste of what is to come: The Patriot Act in Washington and the Anti-Terrorism bill in London...expect more draconian actions to follow.
So I ask myself, was Iraq absolutely worth it? Saddam no doubt had to go, he was too much of a wildcard in the region. But spending billions of dollars that could have gone to real pro-democracy groups and the fight against global hunger and poverty would have been money better spent!
What we probably need now is a "NeuPolitik". I suggest a politik based on give some, take some. More like an advanced barter system. Not Zero-sum politics, heck no! that is part of the old regime. A NeuPolitik representing a true departure from the old paradigm.
